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    AIReF English

    “Our mission is to guarantee effective compliance of the financial sustainability principle by the General Goverment”

    Second Opinion on Minimum Income Scheme

    This is the second Opinion issued by the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility, AAI (AIReF) under Article 31.3 of Law 19/2021, of December 20, which establishes the Minimum Income Scheme. The Minimum Income Scheme is a non-contributory benefit aimed at preventing the risk of poverty of people who lack basic economic resources to cover their ... Read more

    Variability of tax revenues

    The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) has carried out an analysis of the factors that led to a record increase in revenue in 2022. Specifically, it has carried out a decomposition exercise of the variability of the main tax figures in order to quantify the different factors that have led to this increase in ... Read more

    Report on the Stability Programme Update 2023-2026

    The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) publishes the Report on the Stability Programme Update 2023-2026 in which it states that the Government is complying with its commitment to reduce the public deficit to below 3% of GDP over the projection horizon, although, according to the institution's forecasts, this variable will stabilize at 3% from ... Read more

    Endorsement of the macroeconomic forecasts of the Stability Programme 2023-2026

    The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility publishes its endorsement of the macroeconomic forecasts that accompany the Stability Programme Update (SPU) for the years 2023-2026. AIReF considers that both the real and nominal GDP path are feasible and, therefore, endorses the medium-term macroeconomic scenario proposed by the Government. However, it stresses that the endorsement has been ... Read more

    Supplementary Individual Assessment Report on the 2023 Budgets of Local Governments

    The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) has to issue a report in April each year on the variations in the budgets to be executed in the year by the Public Administrations (PAs) with respect to the fundamental lines drawn up at the start of the budget cycle. Within the analysis of the Local Corporations ... Read more

    Individual Reports on the Initial Budgets of the Autonomous Regions for 2023

    The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) publishes the individual reports on the Initial Budgets of the Autonomous Regions (CCAA) for 2023, with which it completes the global analysis of the Public Administrations published last April 5. For the subsector as a whole, the institution estimates a deficit of 0.3% in 2023, similar to the ... Read more

    Report on the Initial Budget of the General Government 2023

    The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) publishes the Initial Budget Report for the Public Administrations 2023, in which it updates its macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts, incorporating the impact of the measures approved or extended since the last report. AIReF maintains the growth estimate at 1.6% for 2023 and raises the public deficit estimate for ... Read more

    Income and unemployment modeling methodology

    The medium-term resources of the fiscal sheet correspond to those estimated by AIReF for its fiscal scenario published in October 2022. Starting in 2027, it is divided between tax revenues and social contributions and the rest of the revenues. The rest of the income is considered to evolve at the same rate as nominal GDP. ... Read more

    Methodology of health, education and long-term care models

    This technical document develops the methodologies used to forecast the ratio of spending on health, education and long-term care to GDP in Spain for the 2070 horizon used in the Opinion on the long-term sustainability of Public Administrations: the incidence of demographics. The document develops three different methodologies: the long-term health expenditure estimation methodology, the ... Read more

    The impact of pension system reforms between 2021 and 2023

    Law 21/2021 on the guarantee of the purchasing power of pensions and other measures to reinforce the financial and social sustainability of the public pension system modified the system of rewards and punishments in force to date, established the revaluation of pensions with the CPI and repealed the sustainability factor. AIReF has assessed the impact ... Read more