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    AIReF English

    “Our mission is to guarantee effective compliance of the financial sustainability principle by the General Goverment”

    Population projections 2022-2070

    AIReF developed in 2018 various tools for the projection of pension spending, including models and tools to estimate the expected evolution of demographic phenomena -fertility, mortality and net immigration- with the purpose of projecting the total population by cohorts. On the occasion of the new population projections d for the Opinion on Long-term Sustainability in ... Read more

    Opinion on the long-term sustainability of public administrations: The impact of demographics

    OPINION ON THE LONG-TERM SUSTAINABILITY OF PUBLIC ADMINISTRATIONS: THE IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHICS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The mission of the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) is to ensure effective compliance with the principle of financial sustainability by the Public Administrations (PAs), as this is a fundamental determinant of economic growth and the well-being of the population ... Read more

    Recommendations third quarter 2022

    The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) published today on its website the follow-up of the recommendations made in the third quarter of the year. Specifically, AIReF issued 7 recommendations, of which 6 were new and 1 of those considered to be live recommendations. The new recommendations issued were aimed at providing public accounts with ... Read more

    Report on the macroeconomic forecasts of Asturias’ Budget 2023

    This report assesses the macroeconomic forecasts accompanying the draft 2023 budget for Asturias, which presents estimates of GDP growth, in volume terms, and employment for the period 2022-2023, different from those used in the General State Budget (PGE). According to the Asturias scenario, GDP could grow by 3.8% in 2022. This figure is more conservative ... Read more

    Report on the macroeconomic forecasts of Catalonia’s Budget 2023

    This report assesses the macroeconomic forecasts accompanying the draft 2023 budget for Catalonia, which presents estimates of GDP growth, in terms of volume, and employment for the period 2022-2023, different from those used in the General State Budget (PGE). The forecast for Catalonia is within the range of estimates of the consensus of analysts of ... Read more

    Report on the macroeconomic forecasts of Murcia’s Budget 2023

    The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) endorses the forecasts for 2023 presented by Murcia. These macroeconomic forecasts are made in a context of uncertainty that makes it difficult to assess them at a national level, but even more so at a territorial level, since the latest information available on the Spanish Regional Accounts refers ... Read more

    Report on the projects and main lines of the 2023 budget of Local Corporations

    The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) publishes the Report on projects and fundamental lines of budgets for 2023 for Local Corporations (CCLL). AIReF estimates a surplus in 2023 of 0.5% of GDP in the CCLL, after reaching 0.2% in 2022. On October 25, AIReF issued the report on the 2023 Budget Projects and Main ... Read more

    Individual reports on the projects and main lines of the Autonomous Regions for 2023

    The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) publishes the individual reports on the projects and fundamental lines of the Autonomous Regions' budgets for 2023 and the report with the individualized analysis of the Autonomous Regions. The Autonomous Regions subsector as a whole will improve substantially in 2023, reaching a deficit of 0.1% of GDP after ... Read more

    Report on the macroeconomic forecasts of Balearic Islands’ Budget 2023

    The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) endorses the forecasts for 2023 presented by the Balearic Islands. These macroeconomic forecasts are made in a context of uncertainty that makes their assessment difficult at the national level, but even more so at the territorial level, since the latest information available on the Regional Accounts of Spain ... Read more

    Report on the macroeconomic forecasts of Canary Islands’ Budget 2023

    The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) endorses the forecasts for 2023 presented by the Canary Islands. These macroeconomic forecasts are made in a context of uncertainty that makes their assessment difficult at a national level, but even more so at a territorial level, since the latest information available on the Spanish Regional Accounts refers ... Read more