The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) received from the Government the request for a report on the macroeconomic scenario accompanying the draft General State Budget for 2025 (PGE-2025) and the medium-term Structural Fiscal Plan. AIReF endorsed the economic scenario for 2025 and 2026, but pointed out that it lacks key information to make a complete assessment of growth.
In the absence of major revisions to the 2023 and 2024 growth pattern in the data to be released by INE next Friday, September 27, the real GDP growth estimate for 2024 would be revised to 2.8%, down from 2.4% in the July scenario.
However, at a later date, when full information on the content of the medium-term Structural Fiscal Plan and on the National Accounts data becomes available, AIReF will update its forecasts and carry out a full assessment of the macroeconomic scenario of the medium-term Structural Fiscal Plan.
