The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) endorses the forecasts for 2023 presented by the Valencian Region. These macroeconomic forecasts are made in a context of uncertainty that makes it difficult to assess them at a national level, but even more so at a territorial level since the latest information available on the Spanish Regional Accounts is for the year 2020 and is not consistent with the information for the country as a whole following the statistical revisions of last September.
According to the macroeconomic scenario for the Valencian Region, GDP could grow by 4.4% in 2022. Its forecast is included within the range of the forecasts available from other agencies and private institutions and is lower than the one made by AIReF, although it must be taken into account that there is great uncertainty and downside risks. For the year 2023, this autonomous community estimates a GDP growth in volume terms of 2%, which is practically in line with AIReF’s estimate of 1.9%.
