The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) today published the estimate of the GDP of the Autonomous Regions (ARs) for the first quarter of 2022 using the METCAP methodology (Methodology for Quarterly Estimation of GDP by Autonomous Region), which was created by the Institution. METCAP provides the first freely-accessible estimate in Spain that offers these figures and its quarterly update is available for all interested parties on AIReF’s website.
These estimates are made once the National Statistics Institute (INE) publishes Spain’s quarterly GDP growth data. Thus, on April 29th 2022, the figures corresponding to the first quarter of 2022 were published. The summary of GDP growth estimates by Autonomous Region and its evolution in both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year rates can be seen in the following tables:
In year-on-year terms, the Canary Islands is the autonomous region with the highest GDP growth, with an increase of 11%, above the average for Spain as a whole (6.4%). The least favourable performance was recorded in Murcia, with growth of 3.2%.
In quarter-on-quarter terms, Navarre and Castile-La Mancha recorded falls in GDP of 0.2%, while the Balearic Islands and Valencia, which stand out for their expansion, recorded increases of 1.2% and 0.7%, respectively. The national average, following the figures provided by the INE on April 29th, was 0.3%.
As usual, AIReF provides users with a user-friendly interface (accessible through the website), which allows the data to be compared between the ARs along with the figure for Spanish GDP.
The quantitative methodology used combines three types of statistical information available for regional analysis: monthly figures on short-term economic indicators disaggregated at the territorial level, annual figures compiled in national accounting terms by the Spanish Regional Accounts (Spanish acronym: CRE) and, lastly, estimates for the country as a whole published by the Quarterly National Accounts (QNA). This combines the speed and timeliness of short-term indicators, the structural information provided by the CRE and the quarterly national benchmark to ensure the consistency of individual regional estimates.
As the INE itself has warned, since the outbreak of the coronavirus, the estimates of the Quarterly National Accounts have been recording larger-than-usual revisions. This means that METCAP’s estimates are also subject to greater uncertainty.
